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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It often functions as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. However, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or just the greatest shock.

But the current competition is profoundly different. The group of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime underperformers improving in unison. During an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this wild and entertaining year, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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