A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
