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A mere 60 days in the past that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager admonished him for not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a sign or the reason of the team's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. When the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery tore off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their opening six games, now sit just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Hopefuls?

It remains a rather hard query to resolve. History, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding in many games, even as the victories have piled up.

According to Opta, twice all season has the team had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a club who have strung together 10 in a row, they appear strangely fragile – but right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with two precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred in London, and once more when facing United.

Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Can It Last?

Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents had more shots and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.

A statistical correction might be the greatest opponent Villa have to face in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still return to peak condition.

• The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
• Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he resembled in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.

Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would be third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial England player.

This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner faced the North End after the match leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.